Climate change optimism bias11/21/2023 According to the 2018 National Climate Assessment report, This means that people, organizations, and our infrastructure will need to adapt. Climate projections expect these trends to accelerate. The graphic above indicates trends in the number of days with a heat index (temperature + humidity) above 90 degrees F from 1979 to 2018. Virtually every credible report published on climate change indicates that extreme heat will continue to be a problem. Trends in number of days with heat index of 90 degrees or more from 1979 to 2018 Climate Central I see this all of the time with people at ballparks during a lightning storm or living in floodplains without flood insurance. Optimism bias is a cognitive bias that makes people think they are less likely to experience a negative event or outcome. This tendency combined with “optimism bias” can lead to very poor decisions. Professor Susan Jasko, California University of Pennsylvania If you think about how many experiences one has in life where the people who have had the experience tell you, "It will be like X." You nod your head, but when you go through the experience you end up thinking, "Wow, she told me it would be like this, but I just didn't really understand. I think it is very difficult for people to truly imagine what they have never known. My colleague Professor Susan Jasko, a communication expert at California University of Pennsylvania, once told me, You probably haven’t experienced an anomaly event before so your personal reference points are useless. By its very definition, an anomaly event is different than a normal experience. During Hurricane Harvey (2017), I remember some people saying things like “Oh, it floods in Houston all of the time, we are used to it, so we didn’t expect it to be this bad.” However, Harvey was an anomaly event.
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